Danielle Latreche
Doctoral researcher, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Uncertainty—broadly understood as the sum of gaps and imperfections in our knowledge of the world—shapes every domain of human inquiry, from politics and economics to physics and ecology. At the science–policy interface, uncertainty in scientific knowledge can cause a number problems. For example, when faced with evidence deemed to be too uncertain, decision-makers may choose to delay taking action in the hope that these uncertainties can later be resolved—a phenomenon known as policy paralysis. Uncertainty can also be weaponised by third parties in an attempt to undermine scientific advice and influence the policy process (Van der Sluijs, 2016).
As such, finding ways effectively to manage and tame uncertainty has become an important skill for those working to produce policy-relevant science Yet scholars, especially those working in the tradition of post-normal science, have cautioned that efforts to “tame” uncertainty may themselves create problems. Attempts to impose certainty can ultimately end up masking important areas of scientific debate and obscuring gaps in our knowledge.
This project will take a mixed methods approach to explore how these dynamics around uncertainty play out in the conservation context by examining the IUCN Red List of threatened species. With more than 166,000 species assessed, the Red List is widely considered the most authoritative source on the conservation status of plants, animals, and fungi. It also plays an important role in the global conservation movement, underpinning a number of key international initiatives, prioritisation frameworks, and influencing funding decisions (IUCN n.d background and history). The aim of this project is to improve our understanding of how uncertainty is managed across different taxa and regions, and to consider the implications of this for conservation policy and practice.